When you look at the market coin by coin, it’s easy to mistake local noise for the overall regime. That’s why on our website we provide the Market Median indicator — a consolidated metric that shows where altcoin prices sit on average relative to the midline of each asset’s regression channel on the 30-minute timeframe.
This is not an “entry signal.” It’s a fast way to understand context: is the market close to normal conditions, stretched to the upside, or pushed down into a discount?
What the Market Median Shows
The indicator answers a simple question:
Is the altcoin market, on average, above or below its “normal” level — and by how much?
That “normal” level is defined as the midline of a regression channel for each coin, then aggregated into one market-wide value.
What a Regression Channel Is (Beginner-Friendly)
A regression channel (often searched as “regression channel” or “linear regression channel”) is a way to describe:
- the market’s main direction over a chosen period, and
- the typical price dispersion around that direction.
It consists of three lines:
- the channel midline — a smoothed line describing the main direction of price over time,
- the upper and lower bounds — two parallel lines around the midline showing the usual range of deviation.
If the midline slopes up, the market is in a bullish phase. If it slopes down, it’s bearish. If it’s nearly flat, the market is typically ranging.
How the Indicator Is Calculated
The calculation is consistent across assets and updates on every 30-minute candle close:
- For each asset, we build a regression channel using the last 1000 candles on 30m.
- We take the current price position relative to the channel midline.
- That position is expressed as a percentage: how far above or below the midline price is.
- We take the median of these percentage values across all eligible altcoins.
- That resulting number is the Market Median value on 30m.
Why median? It smooths out extreme moves in individual coins and reflects the “typical” market state.
Why the Indicator Is Dynamic (And Why That’s Good)
Beginners often expect a fixed “normal” level. In markets, that doesn’t exist.
This indicator is built on a rolling window of 1000 candles on 30m. Every 30 minutes:
- a new candle is added,
- the oldest candle drops off,
- the regression channel is recalculated on the updated dataset.
Because of that, the market’s “normal” midline adapts to the current regime, and the indicator can shift gradually as new data comes in. That’s expected behavior — and the main value of the metric: it measures deviation from the most relevant baseline of recent weeks, not an abstract all-time average.
How to Read the Values
There are two parts: sign and magnitude.
Sign
- Positive: altcoins are, on average, above their midlines — the market is trading at a premium versus its baseline.
- Negative: altcoins are, on average, below their midlines — the market is trading at a discount versus its baseline.
Magnitude
The larger the absolute value, the more stretched the market is from its baseline.
- values near zero: closer to “normal” conditions
- large absolute values: the market is materially stretched up or down
Why This Matters in Practice
1) Market context in one glance
The indicator quickly shows whether the market is:
- pushed below its baseline (discount),
- stretched above its baseline (premium),
- or near normal conditions.
That prevents decision-making in a vacuum based on a single chart.
2) Filtering screener alerts by regime
Our screener delivers events in real time, but treating every alert the same in every regime is expensive.
- when the market is deeply negative, downside continuation and liquidation-type events often dominate, and long ideas require clear buyer reaction;
- when the market is strongly positive, chasing overheated moves is usually a bad trade-off, and normalization matters more.
3) Cross-checking with other global metrics
This indicator pairs well with:
- SMA 200 breadth (strength/weakness regime),
- Median RSI (momentum “temperature”),
- and event streams (OI, liquidations, impulse moves).
A Useful Baseline — Not a Magic Button
The key limitation is simple: any aggregated indicator provides context, not certainty.
Markets can stay far from “normal” for longer than expected, especially in strong risk-on/risk-off phases. And extreme events always exist.
A good reminder is the sharp sell-off in early October 2025, when cascade liquidations hit the market. In that moment, the Market Median on our chart briefly dropped to around -50% — that’s not a “clean oversold entry,” it’s a stress regime where price can keep moving aggressively and normalization can be uneven.
At the same time, historical behavior shows that the -10% area often becomes the first zone where buyers react and the market attempts a bounce. But that’s a probabilistic reference, not a guarantee.
If you choose to build longs at -10% or -20%, keep the cascade-liquidation scenario in mind: on extreme days the indicator can push much deeper without giving the market time to stabilize.
Position sizing and exposure decisions are fully the trader’s responsibility and must align with their risk framework.
Inputs and Assumptions
- timeframe: 30m
- history window: 1000 candles per asset
- universe: liquid altcoins (stablecoins and illiquid assets excluded)
- price source: consistent across tickers
- update: on every 30-minute candle close
Limitations to Remember
- it’s a median: extremes in individual coins are smoothed
- during regime shifts, a return to the midlines can take time
- in strong trends, the sign can persist — that’s the regime, not an indicator error
FAQ
Is “regression channel” the same as “linear regression channel”?
Yes — different wording, same concept in most trading contexts.
Why shouldn’t I use this as an entry signal?
It gives context and deviation from baseline, but not precise timing. Timing should be validated by price reaction and real-time events.
Why median instead of average?
To prevent a few extreme movers from distorting the entire market view. Median reflects the typical condition across most assets.
Conclusion
Market Median is a practical “altcoin market baseline” indicator: it shows how far the market has deviated from its regression-channel midlines on 30m.
It helps you read regime and filter screener signals, but it doesn’t remove the core reality of crypto: the market can enter extremes and stay there — as it did in early October 2025, when deviation briefly reached roughly -50%.
Market Median is available for free to all registered users on our website. Sign up, open the indicator in the dashboard, and use it as a quick regime filter to see whether the market is trading at a premium, a discount, or moving back toward normal conditions.