Summary: 2026 Targets And Scenario Invalidation

This outlook is structured as a stepwise target map. A higher target becomes actionable only after the prior one is confirmed via closes and a retest.

Cycle anchors from CoinGecko: ATH $8.25, ATL $0.5194.

Current price reference on DefiLlama is around $1.32.

2026 targets (ATH→ATL Fibonacci ladder, zones):

• Target 1: ~$2.34 (0.236)
• Target 2: ~$3.47–$4.38 (0.382–0.5)
• Target 3: ~$5.30–$6.60 (0.618–0.786)
• Target 4: ~$8.25 (ATH zone)
• Target 5: ~$10.35 and ~$13.03 (1.272 and 1.618, upper branch)

Scenario invalidation: sustained acceptance below $0.5194 means the lower anchor changed and the ladder must be recalculated.

What Drives TON In 2026: Regime, Derivatives, Supply

Market liquidity regime. In risk-on conditions, TON tends to reclaim levels in steps and retests. In risk-off, false breaks and range re-entries are more frequent.

Derivatives positioning. Funding, open interest, and liquidation cascades help judge whether the move is healthy or leverage-fragile.

Supply events. Calendar unlocks can materially change short-term liquidity balance.

Supply Window: TON Unlock On March 24, 2026 And Operating Rules

DefiLlama lists an event on Mar 24, 2026 04:00 GMT+0, TON Believers Fund, 36.58m TON, shown as 0.72% and 1.49% of float.

DefiLlama also shows Unlocked 55.55%.

Operating rules around the unlock window:

• 72–24 hours before: smaller size; confirmation-only entries; no chasing into impulse candles.
• Event day and next 24 hours: more frequent scale-outs; no market add-ons; margin and leverage control first.
• After the event: return to normal sizing only after the key zone holds via closes and a confirmed retest.

Fibonacci Targets: Confirmation Rules And Execution No-Go Items

Confirmation standard:

• confirmation is based on D/W closes, not wick touches;
• require a retest and hold from above;
• the next step activates only after the prior zone holds.

Execution no-go items:

• no entries “into the target” without a retest;
• no leverage increases mid-move;
• if derivatives overheat, targets are scale-out zones, not add-on zones.

BTC Regime Filter: Pi Cycle As A Risk Rule

Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top is composed of the 111-day SMA and 350-day SMA × 2 and is used as a regime overheating indicator.

For TON this is a risk rule: in overheated regimes, reduce size, scale out earlier, and tighten confirmation requirements.

TON Derivatives Filters: Funding, OI, Liquidations

Funding. Persistent skew often signals crowded one-way positioning and higher pullback risk.

Open interest. If OI rises faster than price, the impulse becomes fragile and retests fail more often.

Liquidations. Cascades near targets increase wick-and-revert probability.

Operating rule: when overheating appears, de-risk on schedule and wait for renewed confirmation.

Cross-Checking Public 2026 Estimates And Mapping To Targets

Methods differ across public forecasts: model-based estimates, fixed-rate calculators, and editorial ranges.

Source snapshot:

1. CoinCodex: end-2026 around $3.45 (model).
2. PricePrediction.net: 2026 min around $3.27 and max around $4.21 (model format).
3. CoinPriceForecast: one current snapshot lists mid-2026 around $2.04 and end-2026 around $2.17.
4. Kraken: a fixed-rate calculator shows 2026 $1.32 as a conditional output.
5. Coinpedia: a wide 2026 editorial range low $1 / average $5 / high $10.

Mapping to the ladder:

• $1.32–$2.17 aligns with stabilization and the approach to Target 1, without confirmed acceptance above $2.34.
• $3.27–$4.21 sits inside Target 2 and requires confirmed Target 1 first.
• $3.45 is close to the lower edge of Target 2 and implies Target 1 acceptance.
• $5–$10 maps into Target 3 and the branch toward/above ATH and requires strict unlock and derivatives discipline.

Execution Checklist, Mini Cases, FAQ

Before entry (60 seconds): define the nearest target and next scale-out zone; check the next 7 days for unlock risk, especially the 72 hours into March 24, 2026; assess funding/OI/liquidations; define invalidation; pre-plan at least two partial exits.

During the move: scale out in steps on approach and after holding on retest; do not increase leverage; if OI accelerates faster than price, reduce risk and wait for renewed confirmation.

After pullback: re-entry only after a retest and hold; closes below a reclaimed zone step the scenario down one level.

Mini cases:

1. Case 1: the March 24, 2026 unlock window overlaps a Target 1 test. Action: smaller size, more frequent scale-outs, no market add-ons.
2. Case 2: price rises while OI grows faster near Target 2. Action: partial exits before the zone, pause add-ons until conditions normalize.
3. Case 3: Target 1 breaks but the retest is weak. Action: treat the level as unaccepted until closes and retest confirm.

FAQ:

• Why are targets shown as zones instead of one exact price?
• Markets accept price in liquidity zones; zones fit stepwise risk control.
• What counts as confirmation: wicks or closes?
• D/W closes plus a retest and hold from above.
• Which target is a base case for 2026 in a recovery scenario?
• Target 1 (~$2.34) is the first major working area; Target 2 activates only after Target 1 is accepted.
• How should the unlock event be handled?
• As a volatility window: smaller size, more partial exits, confirmation-only entries.
• Where is scenario invalidation?
• Sustained acceptance below $0.5194 triggers recalculation of anchors and targets.

Conclusion

A practical TON 2026 target map reads stepwise: ~$2.34, then ~$3.47–$4.38, then ~$5.30–$6.60, with ~$8.25 as the ATH zone. ~$10.35 / ~$13.03 is an upper-branch scenario only after ATH holds as support.

Execution risk concentrates around supply windows, with Mar 24, 2026 listed as a notable unlock event (TON Believers Fund).

Crypto-Resources supports this workflow with two layers: screeners that surface regime metrics (volume, funding, OI, liquidations and related signals) and trading bots that enforce a fixed risk contour with limits, pauses, regime filters, and entry blocking in toxic conditions. Paid and free tools are available, with demo testing.

Risk Disclaimer: crypto markets are high-risk; targets and levels do not guarantee outcomes. This material is informational and not investment advice.