Context And Anchors

OP trades around $0.1956. The historical high is about $4.84 (March 06, 2024) and the historical low is about $0.1647.

This is a target map, not a single year-end number. Each next target becomes active only after confirmation by closes and a retest.

Scenario invalidation: sustained acceptance below the historical low area means the anchors changed and targets must be recalculated.

What Drives OP In 2026: Market, Derivatives, Supply

Three drivers matter most in 2026:

• Market liquidity regime. In risk-on, alts tend to reclaim levels step-by-step. In risk-off, moves are choppy and often fail back into ranges.
• Derivatives leverage. Funding, open interest, and liquidation clusters help judge whether a move is healthy or fragile. Overheating boosts upside speed but raises reversal probability.
• Supply dilution. OP has scheduled unlocks. They do not guarantee sell-offs, but they increase volatility and the odds of false breakouts around key levels.

BTC Regime Filter: Pi Cycle As Risk Control, Not An Entry Signal

Pi Cycle Top is described via the relationship between the 111-day SMA and (350-day SMA × 2) and is used as an overheating marker.

Practical use for OP:

• if BTC shows overheating signs: lower leverage, faster partial exits, stricter confirmation rules;
• in neutral regimes: stepwise execution around targets and retests is more viable.

OP Token Unlocks: Calendar Risk And Operating Rules

Unlock trackers show the next unlock window in late February 2026: Tokenomist lists February 28, 2026 as the next unlock (Core Contributors).

TokenTrack shows a next unlock on March 01, 2026 of about 42.9M OP (around 1% of total supply).

Operating rules around unlock windows:

• 72–24 hours before: smaller size; entries only after confirmation; no chasing.
• Event day and the next 24 hours: finer scaling out; no market add-ons; priority is margin and leverage control.
• 24–72 hours after: return to normal sizing only if the key zone holds via closes and a retest.

Fibonacci Targets: OP 2026 Ladder And Activation Conditions

The ladder is built on the historical ATH → ATL range (example: $4.84 → $0.1647).

These are zones, not “to-the-cent” points. Rule: closes (D/W) + retest from above.

Target 1: ~$1.27 (0.236)

Meaning: first major liquidity return.

Activation: daily/weekly closes above the zone + retest holding without a fast drop back below.

Target 2: ~$1.95–$2.50 (0.382–0.5)

Meaning: base recovery range.

Activation: 0.382 reclaimed and held on a retest; derivatives regime shows no one-sided “leveraged rush”.

Target 3: ~$3.05–$3.84 (0.618–0.786)

Meaning: strong altseason branch.

Activation: stepwise advance with reclaimed levels acting as support; no persistent funding/OI imbalance.

Target 4: ~$4.84 (ATH zone)

Meaning: cycle ceiling zone with elevated reversal risk.

Activation: approach without toxic derivatives conditions; if broken, the zone must hold as support.

Target 5: ~$6.11 and ~$7.73 (1.272 and 1.618)

Meaning: cycle extensions, upper-branch scenario.

Activation: ATH is already support and the market remains in a stable risk-on regime without derivatives overheating.

Cross-Checking Public 2026 Estimates: Why Ranges Differ

Public “price prediction” pages often disagree because they use different methods: model estimates, linear growth calculators, or editorial scenarios.

A few common 2026 references:

• CoinCodex (model, end-of-year): about $0.3514 by end of 2026.
• Kraken (growth calculator example at 5%): about $0.19 for 2026.
• Cryptopolitan (editorial ranges): up to ~$0.76 for 2026 with a wider band that includes ~$0.311.
• CoinPriceForecast (long-term trajectory): about $0.3 by mid-2026.
• AMBCrypto (model with ranges): a 2026 figure around $0.59 is referenced.

How those numbers map to this ladder:

• up to ~$0.30–$0.40: weak recovery / no altseason branch; Target 1 is not in play;
• ~$0.5–$0.8: moderate recovery still below Target 1, where many impulses fail if leverage overheats;
• Target 1 (~$1.27) and above: requires meaningful liquidity return plus confirmation discipline.

Execution Checklist: Before, During, After

Before entry (60 seconds)

• Identify the nearest target and the next scale-out level.
• Check the unlock calendar for the next 72 hours.
• Assess derivatives regime: funding / OI / liquidations should not signal crowded one-way positioning.
• Define a scale-out plan: at least two partial exits.
• Set the scenario invalidation level.

During the move

• Scale out in steps: part on approach, part after the zone holds.
• Do not increase leverage mid-move.
• If derivatives overheat, prioritize risk reduction over stretching to the next target.

After pullback

• Re-entry only after the zone holds on a retest from above.
• If price holds below a reclaimed zone, the scenario steps down one level.

Mini Cases (2–3)

Case 1: Unlock window approaches while price tests a key zone

Event: late-Feb / early-March unlock window.

Reaction: wider ranges and false breaks.

Action: smaller size, confirmation-only entries, finer scale-outs, no market add-ons.

Case 2: Price rises while OI grows faster than price

Event: leverage builds aggressively.

Reaction: fragility increases; sharp flush risk rises.

Action: partial scale-out before the target; pause add-ons until conditions normalize.

Case 3: 0.382 breaks without a retest

Event: level taken on momentum.

Reaction: higher probability of returning into the range.

Action: Target 2 is not treated as active; wait for retest and holding from above.

FAQ (5)

1) Why are targets shown as ranges instead of one price?

Markets accept price in liquidity zones. Ranges are easier to manage with stepwise scaling and retests.

2) What is the first “working” upside area in a recovery?

Target 1 (~$1.27), but only after closes and a retest confirm the zone.

3) What counts as confirmation: wick touches or closes?

Closes. Confirmation is based on holding the zone via closes plus a retest from above.

4) How should unlocks be handled if the long-term view stays bullish?

As a regime factor: smaller size, more partial exits, add-ons only after confirmation.

5) Where is the scenario invalidation point?

Sustained acceptance below the historical low area indicates anchors changed and targets must be recalculated.

Conclusion

A practical Optimism (OP) 2026 target map is stepwise: ~$1.27, then ~$1.95–$2.50, then ~$3.05–$3.84, with the cycle ceiling near ATH ~$4.84. Extensions ~$6.11 / ~$7.73 belong to an upper-branch scenario only after ATH is reclaimed and holds as support. Anchors are based on historical ATH/ATL values.

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After registration you can find free instruments, with demo testing available to evaluate behavior on live market data.

Risk Disclaimer: crypto markets are high-risk; targets and levels do not guarantee outcomes. This material is informational and is not investment advice.