On October 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75%–4.00%. The decision passed 10–2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack favoring a 25-basis-point increase. Inflation and growth data released the following day kept the case for restrictive monetary policy alive, although inflation did not exceed forecasts. For crypto, the bigger questions are how rate expectations, Treasury yields and liquidity evolve from here.
Two Votes Against the Pause: Who Wanted a Rate Hike?
Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, and Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, voted against holding rates steady. Both supported a 25-basis-point hike. Their dissent is recorded in the October 28 FOMC decision; these were not two separate speeches delivered on October 29.
In September, the committee had unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points. October's split reflected different assessments of inflation risk, but it does not mean a December hike has already been decided. The FOMC statement described economic activity as strong and inflation as still elevated. The committee will weigh incoming data before choosing its next move.
Why Warsh Did Not Commit to a December Hike
At his October 28 press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the goal of bringing inflation back to 2%, without committing to another rate increase at the next meeting.
Warsh also pushed back against the idea that strong economic growth automatically means the economy is overheating. In his view, higher productivity can support output without an equivalent rise in inflation, and most committee members do not see the economy as excessively hot.
That leaves the Fed with reasons to stay restrictive, but also reasons to wait for more data. Rates are on hold; the December decision is still open.
PCE Matched Forecasts, While GDP Beat Expectations
On October 29, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released September's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Headline inflation rose to 3.6% year over year from 3.4%, with prices up 0.5% month over month, compared with 0.3% in August. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, reached 3.1% year over year and rose 0.3% on the month.
Both annual inflation readings were in line with expectations. The acceleration was real, but it was not an upside surprise. Matching forecasts does not make inflation benign, either: it remains well above the Fed's 2% target.
The advance estimate of third-quarter US GDP was stronger than expected: 3.4% annualized versus a 3.2% consensus forecast, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. That is an annualized rate based on quarterly growth, not an actual 3.4% expansion over three months. Consumer spending and investment supported the economy.
Solid growth alongside persistent inflation gives the Fed room to keep policy tight and leaves further hikes under discussion. Crucially, the PCE and GDP releases came after the October 28 meeting and could not have influenced the decision already made.
The Start of a Bear Market? What Bitcoin Actually Did
Before the US economic releases on October 29, BTC briefly traded below $80,000. The decline coincided with caution in technology stocks and the market's reaction to a Fed pause accompanied by two votes for higher rates. After the data came out, Bitcoin recovered above $81,000. That bounce did not establish a trend reversal, but it undermines the idea that the inflation release triggered an uninterrupted sell-off.
The macro transmission mechanism runs through expectations. If investors price in higher rates for longer, dollar-denominated assets may remain attractive and leveraged positions become more expensive to finance. Risk appetite can weaken, while forced liquidations can magnify declines in less liquid altcoins.
A single break below $80,000 does not define a bear market. The bearish case would gain weight if BTC kept posting lower lows, rallies repeatedly failed, market breadth deteriorated and liquidity remained under pressure. A recovery would look more credible if demand returned to BTC, yields stabilized and strength spread to Ethereum and altcoins.
Even falling open interest after a sell-off needs context: it can reflect positions being closed, but it does not prove that selling is over.
What Will Drive the Fed's December Decision?
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 8–9, 2026. Before then, markets will get the October jobs report on November 6, CPI on November 10 and the next PCE release on November 25. Together, these reports will provide a clearer picture of inflation persistence and labor-market strength.
If inflation remains sticky and employment holds up, advocates of another hike will have a stronger case. Softer data could support another pause. For Bitcoin, the gap between actual releases and market expectations matters as much as the numbers themselves: rates, Treasury yields, the dollar and crypto prices already reflect part of the expected path.
October 29 illustrated the danger of trading from a headline alone. PCE met expectations, GDP beat forecasts, and BTC managed to rebound after its earlier decline. Whether that recovery holds depends on subsequent price action and the condition of the broader crypto market.
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What Would Confirm the Bearish Scenario?
The Fed paused after September's rate increase, but two committee members voted to keep tightening. PCE inflation did not surprise markets, while stronger-than-expected GDP gave policymakers room to maintain restrictive conditions.
“The start of a bear market” remains a scenario, not a confirmed diagnosis. It would be supported by fresh BTC lows, persistent altcoin weakness, deteriorating liquidity and further repricing of the rate outlook. If the market sustains a recovery despite the hawkish backdrop, that bearish scenario needs to be reassessed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?
No. On October 28, the FOMC kept the target range at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. Two members favored a 25-basis-point increase.
Who voted for a rate hike?
Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack. Their positions were recorded in the October 28 FOMC vote, not in two separate speeches on October 29.
Did PCE inflation come in above forecasts?
No. Headline PCE at 3.6% and core PCE at 3.1% year over year matched expectations. Both were higher than in August and remained above the Fed's target.
Does Bitcoin falling below $80,000 mean a bear market has started?
No. BTC subsequently rebounded above $81,000. A trend assessment requires looking at whether the bounce holds, the sequence of highs and lows, altcoin participation and liquidity conditions.
When is the next Fed rate decision?
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 8–9, 2026. New employment and inflation data released before then could change market expectations.
Risk Disclaimer
This article is for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Macroeconomic data and market expectations can change quickly. Cryptocurrency trading, especially with leverage, carries a significant risk of loss.