Snapshot Date And Calculation Anchors

Snapshot date: February 18, 2026.

Ethena is a synthetic dollar (USDe) protocol on Ethereum; ENA is sensitive to liquidity regimes and derivatives positioning.

ENA trades around $0.1208.

Historical extremes: ATH about $1.52 and ATL about $0.1041.

Price targets are anchored to an impulse top of $0.86 (given). The lower anchor is the historical low area at $0.1041.

2026 Targets: Fibonacci Ladder From The $0.86 Impulse Top

Targets are zones, not “to-the-cent” points. A target becomes actionable only after the previous one is confirmed.

Upward targets (range $0.86 → $0.1041):

1. Target 1: ~$0.28 (0.236)
2. Target 2: ~$0.39–$0.48 (0.382–0.5)
3. Target 3: ~$0.57–$0.70 (0.618–0.786)
4. Target 4: ~$0.86 (return to the impulse top)
5. Target 5: ~$1.07 and ~$1.33 (1.272 and 1.618, upper branch)

Scenario invalidation: sustained acceptance below the $0.1041 ATL area means the lower anchor changed and targets must be recalculated.

Confirmation Rules And Execution “No-Go” Items

Confirmation rules:

• confirmation is based on D/W closes, not wick touches
• require a retest and hold from above
• the next step activates only after the prior zone holds

No-go items:

• no chasing into targets
• no increasing leverage mid-move
• if derivatives become one-sided, risk reduction takes priority over stretching to the next target

Market Regime Via BTC: Pi Cycle As A Risk Filter

Pi Cycle Top uses BTC’s 111-day SMA and 2×350-day SMA and is best treated as a regime overheating filter, not a direct trade trigger.

How it translates to ENA:

• in overheated BTC regimes: smaller size, faster partial exits, stricter confirmations
• in neutral regimes: “breakout → retest → hold” around targets is more reliable

Derivatives Quality Filters: Funding, OI, Liquidations

ENA structure often fails when leverage crowds one side. Three checks are usually enough:

• funding: persistent one-sided funding increases reversal risk
• OI: OI rising faster than price signals a fragile impulse
• liquidations: liquidation clusters near targets increase wick and mean-reversion probability

Practical use:

• if OI accelerates and funding skews, targets are scale-out zones, not add-on zones
• in clean conditions, priority shifts to holding the zone on retest

ENA Unlocks: Calendar Window And March 2026 Operating Rules

Near-term calendar risk: Tokenomist shows the next unlock on March 2, 2026; about 54.83% of total supply is unlocked.

CoinGecko also shows an upcoming unlock on March 2 (40.63M ENA).

TradingView news additionally highlights a larger event on March 5, 2026: 171.88M ENA (about 2.24% of circulating supply) at 07:00 UTC.

For execution, treat March 2–5, 2026 as a single volatility window.

Operating rules around the window:

• 72–24 hours before: smaller size; confirmation-only entries; no chasing impulse candles
• event day and next 24 hours: scale out more frequently; avoid market add-ons; prioritize margin and leverage control
• after the window: return to normal sizing only after the zone holds via closes and a confirmed retest

Cross-Checking Public 2026 Estimates And Mapping To Our Targets

Public “price prediction” pages differ by method: algorithmic ranges, growth calculators, editorial scenarios.

Source snapshot:

• CoinCodex: 2026 channel roughly $0.0829–$0.3311 and end-2026 around $0.21–$0.214.
• Kraken (calculator): with a 5% growth input, end-2026 is about $0.17 as a conditional calculation.
• Gate.com: mentions about $0.1154 for 2026 in a short model.
• Cryptopolitan: shows a 2026 max around $0.82 in an optimistic branch.
• Benzinga: older materials cite a 2026 figure around $1.63.

Mapping to the ladder:

• $0.11–$0.17 aligns with base holding near current levels, before Target 1 activates
• $0.20–$0.33 aligns with approaching Target 1 (~$0.28) and attempts to accept above it
• ~$0.82 aligns with a move toward Target 4 (~$0.86) under a strong market regime
• values above ~$1.07–$1.33 belong to the upper branch and require sustained risk-on plus strict unlock/derivatives discipline

Execution Checklist, Mini Cases, And Common Mistakes

Before entry (60 seconds):

• pick the nearest target and the next scale-out zone
• check the unlock calendar for the next 7 days, especially March 2–5, 2026
• assess funding/OI/liquidations for one-sided leverage
• define invalidation ($0.1041) and the non-negotiable risk cut level
• plan at least two partial exits

During the move:

• scale out in steps: part on approach, part after holding on retest
• if OI accelerates and funding skews, prioritize de-risking
• do not increase leverage mid-move

After the pullback:

• re-entry only after the zone holds on retest
• closes back below a reclaimed zone step the scenario down one level

Mini cases:

• Case 1: March 2–5 unlock window while price approaches Target 1. Reaction: wider ranges and false breaks. Action: smaller size, confirmation-only entries, tighter scale-outs, no market add-ons.
• Case 2: Target 1 breakout while OI rises faster than price. Reaction: fragility increases. Action: partial scale-out before the next zone, pause add-ons until conditions normalize.
• Case 3: BTC Pi Cycle regime overheats while ENA approaches Target 3. Reaction: volatility spikes and fast pullbacks. Action: reduce risk, scale out in steps, retest-only entries.

FAQ

• Why are targets shown as ranges instead of one price?

Markets accept price in liquidity zones; ranges are better for scale-outs and risk control.

• What counts as confirmation: wick touches or closes?

D/W closes plus a retest and holding from above.

• Which target looks like a base recovery area for 2026?

Target 1 (~$0.28) is the first major liquidity-return zone; Target 2 needs acceptance and clean derivatives.

• How should unlocks be handled if the broader view stays bullish?

As a volatility factor: smaller size, more partial exits, add-ons only after confirmation.

• Where is the invalidation point?

Sustained acceptance below ~$0.1041 means recalculation.

Conclusion

A practical ENA 2026 view reads as a step ladder from a $0.86 impulse top: ~$0.28 first, then with confirmation ~$0.39–$0.48, then ~$0.57–$0.70, a return to ~$0.86, and an upper branch at ~$1.07 / ~$1.33. Invalidation is acceptance below ~$0.1041.

A key execution risk is the March 2–5, 2026 unlock window, where sizing and scale-outs should be stricter.

Crypto-Resources fits this workflow with two layers: screeners that surface regime metrics (volume, funding, OI, liquidations and related indicators), and trading bots that follow a fixed risk contour—limits, pauses, regime filters, and entry blocking in toxic conditions. The toolkit includes paid and free instruments, plus demo testing to evaluate behavior on live market data without capital pressure.

Risk Disclaimer: crypto markets are high-risk; targets and levels do not guarantee outcomes. This material is informational and is not investment advice.